The DraftKings Showdown view will have their salary as well. Moving from left to right, the first section of the chart simply shows each players’ current overall score, and their SG Rating (which I will cover below). The chart also includes a few other important rankings, including a section of past historical scoring by each player during past “second” rounds. Ball-striking is a combination of a player’s off-the-tee (OTT) and approach (APP) performance. While performance in golf can be volatile from round to round, the chart below was created to show a snapshot of how players have been performing in two of the most important categories related to predicting success, strokes gained (SG) ball-striking (BS) and putting (P). The more you can learn about each golfer, their trends, the course, etc., the more confidence you will have in your selections. Research, research, and do more research, but don't forget common sense.
Remember, while the data should be your guide, don't be a slave to it. For a more complete explanation of the categories in the datasheet, please reference the section below. For both the betting and DFS sheets, the Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric used to predict performance based on the raw data from the previous round(s) and a few other splits. And yes, for the first time, below the betting section you will see a brief DFS section with my best plays for the Showdown slate.
The model also has a DFS DraftKings Showdown sheet as well. I will also use it for my analysis when making picks here in this article. I post it on the Discord channel each night after the Thursday-Saturday rounds are completed. He is worth watching.įor those of you new to these in-tournament round articles, a few months ago I introduced a data-based model to better help analyze the myriad of betting matchups books put out between rounds. Considering the course's length, the fit does not appear to be a great one, but Na was striping flagsticks on Thursday, finishing second in the field in SG: Approach. But the value I like the most is Kevin Na at +3500 on DraftKings. As for value on the current board, if Bryson DeChambeau can dial in his wedge game he is definitely in play at +2000. Rahm is the current favorite at +430, followed by Smith and Cantlay at +550. With breezes even slightly calmer on Friday, we should see more of the same low-scoring golf that is typical at Kapalua.
Rahm's all-around game was sparkling as he was the only player to gain at least 0.5 strokes in each of the Strokes Gained metrics. As for Rahm and Cantlay, neither showed any signs of rust after long layoffs. Berger's ball-striking was superb, gaining 2.4 strokes on the field. Behind Smith is the world-class trio of Daniel Berger, Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay, each at 7-under. He did most of his damage with his putter, gaining 3.4 strokes on the greens. He ended up blazing his way to an 8-under 65 and a one-shot lead in the opening round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Cameron Smith was even-par through his first four holes, but he caught fire starting with an eagle on the fifth hole. The field averaged a staggering 3.4 shots under par, and there were only four players who did not shoot in the red. As the sun set beyond the reaches of Makaluapuna Point on Maui's northwest coast, it was just another day in paradise and just another ultra-low scoring round for the majority of the 38-player field at Kapalua's Plantation Course.
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